Valid and accurate simple equation to predict 3,000-m steeplechase performance

Introduction Predict running performances is very important for athletes and trainers. Sport researchers have therefore developed certain tools to predict running performances, but only in non-obstacle races. This study aimed to develop and test the validity and accuracy of an equation for predicting 3,000-m steeplechase performance ( Perf Steeple ). Methods The official rankings of French runners for the 3,000-m track-running ( Perf 3000 ) and 3,000-m steeplechase events were examined. Age, height and body mass were collected. From 146 included athletes, two groups were randomly composed: one comprising 80% of the sample ( n = 117) to develop a simple equation to predict Perf Steeple ( i.e. , development group) and the other comprising the remaining 20% ( n = 29) to test the validity and accuracy of the developed prediction equation ( i.e. , cross-validation group). Results The simple prediction equation included Perf 3000 and age: PerfSteeple=−57,165+1,147×Perf3000+0,955×age . No significant difference was noted between the actual and predicted performances. Predicted performances were significantly correlated with the actual ones, with a very high correlation coefficient ( p < 0.001; r = 0.929). Bias and 95% limits of agreement were −5 ± 24 s, i.e. , −0.8 ± 7.6%. In 95 of 100 new predictions, the difference between actual and predicted performance would be less or equal to—5 ± 24 s. Discussion The study confirms the validity and accuracy of the equation for predicting Perf Steeple . Predictions using this simple equation may be used in training and competitions for athletes and coaches. Perf Steeple = −57,165 + 1,147 X Perf 3000 + 0,955 X age .