AI-Driven Forecasting for Morning Fog Expansion (Sea of Clouds)

Abstract This study attempted to forecast the morning fog expansion (MFE), commonly referred to as the “sea of clouds,” utilizing an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm. The radiation fog phenomenon that contributes to the sea of clouds is caused by various weather conditions. Hence, the MFE was predicted using datasets from public meteorological observations and a mesoscale numerical model (MSM). In this study, a machine learning technique, the gradient-boosting method, was adopted as the AI algorithm. The Miyoshi basin in Japan, renowned for its MFE, was selected as the experimental region. Training models were developed using datasets from October to December 2018–21. Subsequently, these models were applied to forecast MFE in 2022. The model employing the upper-atmospheric prediction data from the MSM demonstrated the highest robustness and accuracy among the proposed models. For untrained data in the fog season during 2022, the model was confirmed to be sufficiently reliable for forecasting MFE, with a high hit rate of 0.935, a low Brier score of 0.119, and a high area under the curve (AUC) of 0.944. Furthermore, the analysis of the importance of the features elucidated that the meteorological factors, such as synoptic-scale weak wind, temperatures close to the dewpoint temperature, and the absence of middle-level cloud cover at midnight, strongly contribute to the MFE. Therefore, the incorporation of upper-level meteorological elements improves the forecast accuracy for MFE. Significance Statement An AI-driven forecasting model for predicting morning fog expansion (MFE), sea of clouds, which often affects local livelihoods, was constructed. Fog forecasting machine learning techniques were utilized in the Japanese region famous for the morning fog. This study revealed that more accurate forecasting models incorporate numerically predicted weather elements sourced from the public routine system rather than real-time observed weather elements. Notably, the upper-level wind speed reflecting synoptic-scale dynamics, surface dewpoint depression, and middle-level cloud cover play significant roles in governing MFE. Therefore, incorporating upper-level meteorological elements into the features to machine learning is crucial for improving the forecasting accuracy of MFE.