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Abstract The Atlantic Niño, a primary climatic variability mode in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, exhibits pronounced variability not only in boreal summer but also in winter. However, the role of Winter Atlantic Niño in trans-basin interactions remains underexplored compared to its summer counterpart. Through analysis of observational reanalysis data since the mid-twentieth century, here we found that Winter Atlantic Niño significantly influences the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), surpassing the impact of Summer Atlantic Niño with a longer lead time. This effect was reasonably captured in the historical simulation from the CMIP6, from a multi-model ensemble perspective. Further analysis with the global warming scenario projects that the influence of Winter Atlantic Niño on ENSO will persist into the future, contrasting with a reduced impact of Summer Atlantic Niño. Therefore, these findings underscore the importance of further investigating Winter Atlantic Niño for a comprehensive understanding of trans-basin interactions and their future change.
Park et al. (Thu,) studied this question.