Prediction model for leaflet thrombosis in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation: the EFFORT study

Abstract Background Leaflet thrombosis (LT) is a multifaceted and underexplored condition that can manifest following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). The objective of this study was to formulate a prediction model based on laboratory assessments and clinical parameters, providing additional guidance and insight into this relatively unexplored aspect of post-TAVI complications. Methods The present study was an observational prospective hypothesis-generating study, including 101 patients who underwent TAVI and a screening for LT (the primary endpoint) by multidetector computed tomography (MDCT). All images were acquired on a third-generation dual-source CT system. Levels of von Willebrand factor (vWF) activity, hemoglobin (Hb), and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were measured among other parameters. A predictive score utilizing binary logistic regression, Kaplan–Meier time-to-event analysis, and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis was established. Results LT (11 subclinical and 2 clinical) was detected in 13 of 101 patients (13%) after a median time to screening by MDCT of 105 days (IQR, 98–129 days). Elevated levels of vWF activity (> 188%) pre-TAVI, decreased Hb values ( 312 U/L) post-TAVI and absence of oral anticoagulation (OAC) were found in patients with subsequent LT formation as compared to patients without LT. The established EFFORT score ranged from − 1 to 3 points, with an increased probability for LT development in patients with ≥ 2 points (85.7% of LT cases) vs < 2 points (14.3% of LT cases; p < 0.001). Achieving an EFFORT score of ≥ 2 points was found to be significantly associated with a 10.8 times higher likelihood of developing an LT ( p = 0.001). The EFFORT score has an excellent c-statistic (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.89; 95% CI 0.74–1.00; p = 0.001) and a high negative predictive value (98%). Conclusion An EFFORT score might be a helpful tool to predict LT development and could be used in risk assessment, if validated in confirmatory studies. Therefore, the score has the potential to guide the stratification of individuals for the planning of subsequent MDCT screenings. Graphical abstract Central illustration. Created with BioRender.com