Understanding the behaviors of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity under the CO 2 removal scenario is important for future climate adaptation and policy making. Based on the idealized CO 2 ramp‐up (from 284.7 to 1,138.8 ppm) and symmetric ramp‐down experiments, our results suggest an asymmetric and irreversible response of TC potential intensity to CO 2 reduction. Potential intensity shows an additional enhancement at the same CO 2 level during the CO 2 ramp‐down relative to the ramp‐up periods (though with regional differences), and does not completely return to the initial value even when CO 2 recovers on multi‐decadal to centennial timescale. The enhanced potential intensity is dominated by the increased thermodynamic disequilibrium, which is mainly attributed to the weakened surface winds arising from the El Niño‐like warming pattern and inter‐hemispheric ocean temperature contrast. Our results highlight the potential risks of stronger storms on the socioeconomic development under the negative carbon emissions pathways.
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Huan et al. (2024) studied this question.
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