Water quality ensemble prediction model for the urban water reservoir based on the hybrid long short-term memory (LSTM) network analysis

The water quality of drinking water reservoirs directly impacts the water supply safety for urban residents. This study focuses on the Da Jing Shan Reservoir, a crucial drinking water source for Zhuhai City and the Macau Special Administrative Region. The aim is to establish a prediction model for the water quality of drinking water reservoirs, which can serve as a vital reference for water plants when formulating their water supply plans. In this research, after smoothing the data using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, we utilized the long short-term memory (LSTM) network model to create a water quality prediction model for the Da Jing Shan Reservoir. Simulation calculations reveal that the model's fitting degree is consistently above 60%. Specifically, the prediction accuracy for pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) in the water quality prediction model aligns with actual results by more than 70%, effectively simulating the reservoir's water quality changes. Moreover, for parameters such as pH, DO, BOD, and total phosphorus, the relative forecasting error of the LSTM model is less than 10%, confirming the model's validity. The results of this study offer an essential model reference for predicting water quality for the Da Jing Shan Reservoir.