Observational analysis reveals that offensive zone possession time correlates with goal differential in NHL teams, highlighting a robust metric for evaluating performance.
This paper investigates the relationship between puck possession and team success in the NHL, focusing on the games played during the 2023-2024 regular season (up to the All-Star break). The analysis first reveals a moderate correlation (r = 0.56) between average team possession percentage and Average Goal Differential (Avg. GoalDiff). Next, we introduce Average Offensive Zone Possession Time Differential (Avg. OZPTD) as a key metric, defined as the difference between a team’s offensive zone possession time and that of their opponents. We find a strong correlation (r = 0.77) between Avg. OZPTD and Avg. GoalDiff, thereby highlighting its relevance in assessing team performance. Our analysis confirms OZPTD’s stability, discriminatory power, and independence from existing metrics like Shot Attempt Percentage (SAT%), also known as Corsi. Additionally, we detail a comprehensive methodology for processing and cleaning possession data sourced from the NHL. This methodology underpins our findings and facilitates future research involving player and team possession data.
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Pitassi et al. (2024) studied this question.
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