The competitive dynamics of invalid voting in French legislative elections, 2002-2022

Despite a recent increase in studies, spoiled and blank ballots remain an under-theorised aspect of voting behaviour. The French case provides an opportunity, conceptually and empirically, to analyse a number of competitive dynamics which should influence rates of vote invalidation. The stable institutional context of two-round legislative elections between 2002 and 2022 provides electoral district-level data to examine how outcomes from the first round encourage vote invalidation at the subsequent run-off. Starting from a multi-level time-series cross-section specification, this paper finds that the more that candidate choices and performance deprive voters of second-round choice, the higher the rates of invalid voting. In particular, electoral thresholds ousting otherwise competitive candidates increase invalid voting. Despite the radical shift in party system array across this 20-year period, however, it finds that the candidate alignments which best characterize those voter pools deprived of choice remain relatively stable over time.