A nomogram‐based predictive model for tooth survival in Chinese patients with periodontitis: An 11‐year retrospective cohort study

Aim To develop a nomogram‐based predictive model of tooth survival by comprehensively analysing clinical and radiographic risk factors of tooth loss (TL). Materials and Methods In this study, 3447 teeth of 131 subjects who underwent non‐surgical periodontal treatment were examined retrospectively within a mean follow‐up period of 11.6 years. The association of risk factors including clinical and radiographic parameters with TL was assessed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. A nomogram‐based predictive model was developed, and its validation and discriminatory ability were analysed. Results In all, 313 teeth were lost in 94 patients in this study (overall tooth loss [OTL] 9.08%; 0.21 teeth/patient/year). Male, heavy smoking, molar teeth, probing depth (PD), attachment loss (AL), tooth mobility and radiographic bone loss were significantly associated with TL ( p < .05). A gradient effect of tooth mobility on TL increased from degree I to III versus none ( p < .0001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the model was 0.865. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis demonstrated good performance and high net benefit, respectively. Conclusions Adopting a specific nomogram could facilitate the prediction of tooth survival and the development of tailored treatment plans in Chinese patients with advanced periodontitis.