Tailoring climate mitigation strategies for passenger transportation by capturing contextual heterogeneity in TIMES-Sweden

Meeting ambitious climate targets requires deep cuts in emissions from passenger transportation. Many studies point to electrification and behavioural shifts as key measures. Spatial, demographic, economic, and transport-sector-related factors shape the opportunities and preferences for change, thus setting the direction and pace of the transition. These factors typically differ between urban, suburban and low-population-density settings, a fact that is generally overlooked in comprehensive energy system optimisation models (ESOM). This study introduces a novel contextual representation of passenger transportation within a national ESOM (TIMES-Sweden). When testing the new approach, different cost barriers to electrification are found across various settings, signalling a need for different policy responses. Further, opportunities for – and impact from – shifts in travel behaviours vary significantly across settings. These results highlight the need for climate change mitigation strategies in passenger transportation which are better tailored to specific contexts.