Huang et al. (2024) measured the derivative of the phase φw of the Galactic warp traced by classical Cepheids with respect to their age τ and interpreted it as the warp precession rate ωφw/dt=-dφw/dτ. This interpretation is unfounded: young stars follow trajectories close to those of their parental gas and trace the instantaneous gas warp, not its shape at their time of birth: φw should hardly depend on Cepheid age. We show that the measured dφw/dτ>0 is consistent with an omitted-variable bias from neglecting the natural twist dφw/dR of the warp and the R-τ correlation for Cepheids (originating from the Galactic metallicity gradient and the Cepheid metallicity-age correlation).
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Dehnen et al. (2024) studied this question.
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