A Probabilistic Model-Based Approach to Assess and Minimize Scaling in Geothermal Plants

Abstract Geothermal installations often face operational challenges related to scaling which can lead to loss in production, downtime, and an increase in operational costs. To accurately assess and minimize the risks associated with scaling, it is crucial to understand the interplay between geothermal brine composition, operating conditions and pipe materials. The accuracy of scaling predictive models can be impacted by uncertainties in the brine composition, stemming from sub-optimal sampling of geothermal fluid, inhibitor addition, or measurement imprecision. These uncertainties can be further increased for fluid at extreme conditions especially high salinity and temperature. This paper describes a comprehensive method to forecast scaling in geothermal plants, quantify its impact on the production and determine operational control strategies to minimize the scaling considering brine composition uncertainties. The developed modelling framework consists of a multiphase flow solver coupled with a geochemistry model and an uncertainty quantification workflow to locally estimate the probability of precipitation potential and scaling amount in different locations of the geothermal facility, including the impact on the hydraulic efficiency of the geothermal plant by increasing the roughness and/or decreasing the diameter of the casings and pipelines. For plant operation optimization, a robust control problem is formulated with scenarios which are generated based on uncertainties in brine composition using an exhaustive search method. The modelling and optimization workflow was demonstrated in a geothermal case study dealing with barite and celestite scaling in a heat exchanger. The results showed the significant impact of brine composition uncertainties, specifically barium, sulphur, chlorine and strontium concentration on barite and celestite precipitation. Comparing the outcome of optimization problem for the deterministic and fluid composition uncertainties, a change of up to 2.5% in the temperature control settings was observed to achieve the optimal coefficient of performance.