Taipei will pursue independence indirectly

Significance Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te favours formal independence but has continued his predecessor's cautious policy for fear of triggering a war and alienating potential allies. He seeks to build deeper international ties, especially via links with like-minded democracies, to strengthen de facto independence. Impacts Taiwan’s major Western allies will continue to signal support for Taiwan in its standoff with China to maintain its self-governance. The Kuomintang (KMT) will use poor cross-Strait ties to depict the DPP as a danger and continue attempts to curb the president’s powers. East Asian democracies will further deepen coordination with Taiwan to mitigate Chinese aggression, including with the United States. Politics will become increasingly polarised because of China’s growing assertiveness and opposition control of the legislative branch.