Taipei will struggle with cross-Strait policy

Significance Lai’s victory showed the electorate’s approval of outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen, who avoided armed conflict with China while boosting ties with Washington and its allies. Lai’s main challenge will be cross-Strait policy, as Beijing has significantly raised military pressure in an attempt to expand control over the island. Impacts Asian US allies will treat Lai with some caution, at least until he proves that he can show restraint in his comments on independence. China will continue trying to poach Taiwan’s twelve remaining diplomatic allies to further isolate Taipei from the international community. Tokyo and Washington will continue to bolster defence for a possible war with China over Taiwan, a slightly more likely scenario under Lai.