Inhibiting Indoctrination: Autocratic Benefits and the Limited Effects of Indoctrination after Democratization

Can autocratic indoctrination shape contemporary democratic preferences? We argue that while ideological indoctrination can influence democratic preferences after a regime transition, its effects are significantly conditioned by the cognitive dissonance between individuals’ lived experiences under autocracy and the indoctrinating propaganda. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design and survey data from the Baltic countries, we estimate the causal impact of exposure to Soviet indoctrination through compulsory elementary education in the aftermath of the Soviet occupation in 1944. Our results show that exposure to Soviet elementary education reduces democratic preferences and increases support for authoritarianism after democratic transitions. Most importantly, our findings also demonstrate that benefiting from the Soviet regime conditions the effect of educational indoctrination on support for democracy. Those who did not benefit are more resistant to indoctrination and exhibit significantly stronger democratic support compared to those who did benefit from the regime.