Introduction This study aimed to identify job security/insecurity trajectories in the Australian labour market, and examine associations between estimated trajectories and mental health. Methods We used 15 waves of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify discrete job security trajectories for women and men from baseline (28-38 years) to Wave 18 (41-51 years). Associations between estimated trajectories and mental health (Mental Health Inventory, MHI-5) at Wave 19 were assessed using logistic regression models, adjusting for potential confounders. Results For men and women, four discrete trajectory groups were identified: persistent security (18% women; 24% men), low-increasing security (12% women; 16% men); moderate-declining security (37% women; 28% men); persistent insecurity (33% women; 31% men). Relative to persistent security, all job security trajectories for both men and women were associated with poorer mental health at wave 19: low-increasing security for women (-6.07, 95%CI -8.71, -3.43) and men (-6.29, 95%CI -9.58, -3.00); moderate-declining security for women (-6.6, 95%CI -10.95, -2.44) and men (-3.99, 95%CI -7.47, -0.51). Associations especially strong for those in the persistently insecure trajectories (women: -11.5, 95%CI -15.1,-8.0; and men: -11.7, 9%CI -15.1, -8.4). Discussion Clear trajectories in job security were apparent for men and women and these job security trajectories were associated with later mental health, especially for those experiencing persistent job insecurity. Conclusion Trajectories in perceived job security are strongly associated with mental health.
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