The modeling of measures of prevention and shaping proper behavior in population as tool of averting redundant risks of morbidity and mortality as exemplified by COVID-19 pandemic

The article considers issues of how population behavior impacts realization of state anti-epidemic measures and efforts to control pandemic. Materials and Methods. The methodology of the study is based on such methods as text analysis, elastic network and construction of regression equations. The analysis of indicators characterizing state policy measures controlling pandemic was applied according to data from The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker portal. The behavioral reactions of population were assessed by text analysis of messages in Twitter and VKontakte social networks using the Rulexicon, tonalities dictionary of Russian language. The analysis of mobility was implemented on basis of data from Google Community Mobility Reports (GCMR). The study base includes data of March 12, 2020 — August 1, 2021. It is established that in controlling pandemic the most effective is to apply combination of measures implemented at state level of the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation that permits to compensate negative effect of quarantine regimen. In the Russian Federation,effect of self-isolation measures, organization of remote work of employees of enterprises, closure of schools, wearing masks is controversial and their incorrect application can contribute to virus propagation. The vaccination measures are also effective in reducing morbidity of disease, but they are characterized by lagging effect. The approval and acceptance by population anti-epidemic measures significantly impact efficiency of pandemic control. The study results can be applied in practice of implementation of anti-epidemic measures as a tool preventing excessive risks of population morbidity and mortality.