Unveiling the Türkiye-GCC Economic Partnership: ARDL Cointegration Approach

This analysis examines the economic relationship between Türkiye and the GCC countries, focusing notably on the economic and trade ties. It argues that while mutual relations have increased during the AK Party era, historical commercial relations have been subject to fluctuations due to regional and foreign policy preferences. Descriptive analysis using secondary data supports this claim. Cointegration techniques are also employed to empirically analyze the trade relationship between the two sides from 1994 to 2020. The results indicate long-term cointegration in Türkiye-GCC economic relations, with bilateral trade positively affected in the long-term. However, the findings also suggest that as GCC countries’ exports to Türkiye increase, Türkiye’s exports to the GCC increase even more over the long-term.