Estimating and forecasting red meat consumption and production in Saudi Arabia during 2022-2030

The study aims to predict domestic consumption and the production of three meat species (cattle, goats, and sheep) between 2022 and 2030. All series data in addition income per capita as exogenous variable are stationary at the first difference. So vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables was applied, according to information criterion ( ) the model of order without an intercept term and a trend is the best model for predicting domestic meat consumption. Furthermore, the vector autoregressive model with an intercept and trend is the best predictor of meat production for the three types. The predicted value of production for cattle and sheep seems to have fallen throughout the forecast period; conversely, it appears to have increased for goats. On the other hand, cattle and sheep increased in domestic consumption, whereas goats decreased over the estimation period.