A Study on the Effect of Changes in Macroeconomics and Population Characteristics on the Housing Sales Market in the Metropolitan Area and Non-metropolitan Area

This study attempted to compare and derive the impact on the housing sales market in the metropolitan area and local cities and to present implications in terms of the real estate brokerage market. The Vector Error Correction Model was used as the analysis method in consideration of the time series characteristics and cointegration relationship of the used macroeconomic and demographic variables. The analysis results and implications are summarized as follows. In the case of the metropolitan area model, interest rates, consumer price indices, population growth rates, and fertility rates were the main factors influencing the housing sales market. The five metropolitan city models are the main factors influencing interest rates, economic growth rates, and consumer price indices, while the explanatory power of the fertility rate is very low. Considering these results, housing can be classified as an investment product in the metropolitan area, and local cities can be classified as a housing sales market with strong characteristics as a consumer product. Long-term housing sales are not expected to increase significantly due to the recent decline in investment and real demand due to the stabilization of housing prices due to high-interest rates. The housing brokerage market needs to be developed into a convergence field by combining highly relevant management and consulting.