Study on the Determinants of Housing Sales Transaction Volume Considering Population Factors

This study analyzed the determinants of housing transaction volume and applied the demographic composition by age group which is an essential factor to estimate housing demand to the analytical model. The key findings of the study are as follows: Firstly, the study reaffirmed the co-movement phenomenon between fluctuations in housing prices and transaction volumes. Secondly, aside from market interest rates, the most influential factor affecting the volatility of housing transactions was identified as psychological factors to the housing market. Thirdly, in terms of population demographics, individuals in their 20s and 30s had a relatively small impact on transaction volumes, while those in their 40s and 50s had the biggest impact. Fourthly, the study confirmed a decrease in transaction volumes in proportion to an increase in the population aged 60 and older. Given that since 2020 individuals aged 60 or older have been increasing by approximately 4% every year, this aging trend contributes to an annual decline in transaction volumes. Amidst paradigm shifts in population demographics such as low birth rates, aging and local extinction, this study carries significant implications by confirming the impact of demographic factors on housing transaction volumes. In particular, this study is expected to give a contribution to policy decisions for local taxes such as acquisition ones directly tied to housing sales and the real estate brokerage market.