The problem of predictive analysis in assessing the risks and threats of digital transformation of processes in the education system of the Republic of Belarus

The article in its targeted focus by the author considers problematic aspects of studying issues related to the implementation of digital transformation processes in the field of education in the Republic of Belarus, taking into account the predictive analysis of the presented risks and threats arising before society of the emerging era of digitalization. In many ways, it is objectively and correctly implemented forecasting that is the reference position for making balanced decisions in determining the strategic directions for the development of education in its short and long term. Analysis of existing publications in this field in the Republic of Belarus allows us to conclude that there are insufficient in-depth and systemic studies that, in their interdisciplinary nature, would overcome the methodological inconsistency of the problem of predictive analytics in assessing the risks and threats associated with the processes of digital transformation in the educational sphere, including taking into account psychological and pedagogical problems. A comparative analysis of the studies of Belarusian scientists, the conceptual provisions of state programs in the field of digitalization of education, together with the concretization of the used conceptual and terminological apparatus, allowed the author to determine the necessary methodological grounds for scientific search. Within the framework of scientific reflection, when taking into account the theoretical and methodological approaches developed in psychological and pedagogical science, the author highlighted the foundations of the predictive analysis carried out based on a clear understanding of the leading trends in the development of modern education. The article highlights the determinants - the factors that determine the dynamics of the technologization of the educational sphere, the specifics of the integration of innovative information and communication technologies into the educational activities carried out by its subjects. The noted provisions, along with the definition of risks and threats to digital transformation of processes in the education system of the Republic of Belarus, made it possible to comprehend the conditions for their minimization and overcoming the imperatives of the proposed requirements for their implementation