India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued periodic district level rainfall forecast in Mizoram over past twelve years. We evaluated the accuracy and usability of forecast using several index based approaches. The accuracy was more but with limited forecast skills during non-rainy over major rain-receiving months. Principal component analysis identified four indices viz.Odds ratio skill score(ORSS),Probability of Detection (PoD), Odds ratio (OR) and Frequency bias (BIAS); essential for forecast accuray evaluation using minimum rainfall datasets. Relative operating characteristic(ROC) curvesignified that there was considerable scope for increaseing forecast accuracy through multi model-ensemble (MME)calibration under Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva (GKMS) network.
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Saha et al. (2024) studied this question.
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