The probabilistic approach of statistical seismology plays a fundamental role in analyzing the evolution of an earthquake sequence at different scales to deliver reliable forecasts of complex earthquake phenomena. This study contributes to the field by extending previous results relative to the extreme events probability. We derive the explicit formulation of the probability of extreme events in any seismic cluster generated by the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, as a function of time, space, and magnitude. The results give insights into understanding the distinguishing features between mainshocks and foreshocks, thus helping to shed light on earthquake prediction.
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Spassiani et al. (2024) studied this question.
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