Inter-provincial embodied carbon emission space and industrial transfer paths in China

To bolster the dual-circulation development model and green economy, this study delves into the spatiotemporal dynamics of implied carbon transfer in China’s inter-provincial and inter-industrial trade, emphasizing its significance for the "dual carbon" objectives. Utilizing multi-regional input-output data from 2012, 2015, and 2017, we employed the multi-region input-output model to gauge embodied carbon transfers across 31 provinces and 28 industries. The Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) model further decomposed the growth of trade-related carbon emissions. Key findings include: (1) The electricity and thermal power sectors dominate carbon transfers, with secondary industries seeing rapid growth; (2) Northern provinces significantly outweigh southern ones in carbon transfers and the main direction of it is towards affluent southern coastal regions; (3) Scale effect plays a pivotal role in these transfers. Conclusively, it is crucial for regulatory authorities to rationally formulate region-specific emission policies for inter-regional coordination, and future studies can focus on industrial and spatial clustering effects.