Determinants of Smallholder Farmers’ Crop Productivity and Adaption Strategies amidst Rainfall Variability Concerns in Chongwe District, Zambia

Climate change, which is a global challenge, is caused by accelerated anthropogenic activities. It leads to an increase in the amount of greenhouses gases in the atmosphere. Its impacts are profound in climate sensitive sectors such as smallholder agriculture. Zambia’s smallholder farmers are dependent on rainfed agriculture, and are thus vulnerable to climate change and climate variability. Climate variability, manifested through extreme events such as droughts, floods and abnormal temperatures, works synergistically with other factors to affect crop productivity. This study examined the determinants of smallholder farmers’ crop productivity amidst variability in seasonal rainfall received in Chongwe District of Zambia. Five study sites (villages) were purposively sampled, namely, Mudenda, Mutakama, Mulwila, Kalilika and Kangalangala. A total of 35 respondents and 3 key informants were interviewed during this study. All the respondents were smallholder farmers while the key informants were representatives from the Zambia Meteorological Department, Chongwe District Agriculture Office, and a traditional leader. The trend analysis revealed that rainfall in Chongwe District had decreased at an annual rate of 9.60 mm between 2000 and 2021. Even though the reduction is not statistically significant (p = 0.181) the downward trend in rainfall should compel smallholder farmers to devise adaptation measures to combat the decreased annual rainfall. Further, maize yields had decreased at an annual rate of 0.012 ton/ha between 2010 and 2019 which was not statistically significant (p=0.812). An assessment of social factors that could influence maize productivity revealed household size (r = 0.754; p = 0.012) and farming experience (r = 0.344; p = 0.043) as significant factors that affected maize productivity among the sampled households.. The study concludes that the smallholder farmers that were studied have been experiencing decreased rainfall trends and maize productivity which increases their vulnerability to climate variability and climate change. The study recommends that agricultural development interventions should focus on enhancing the resilience of smallholder farmers in Chongwe District through climate change awareness, household income diversification, and public social capital mechanisms.