Identification of metastasis-related genes for predicting prostate cancer diagnosis, metastasis and immunotherapy drug candidates using machine learning approaches

Abstract Background Prostate cancer (PCa) is the second leading cause of tumor-related mortality in men. Metastasis from advanced tumors is the primary cause of death among patients. Identifying novel and effective biomarkers is essential for understanding the mechanisms of metastasis in PCa patients and developing successful interventions. Methods Using the GSE8511 and GSE27616 data sets, 21 metastasis-related genes were identified through the weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) method. Subsequent functional analysis of these genes was conducted on the gene set cancer analysis (GSCA) website. Cluster analysis was utilized to explore the relationship between these genes, immune infiltration in PCa, and the efficacy of targeted drug IC50 scores. Machine learning algorithms were then employed to construct diagnostic and prognostic models, assessing their predictive accuracy. Additionally, multivariate COX regression analysis highlighted the significant role of POLD1 and examined its association with DNA methylation. Finally, molecular docking and immunohistochemistry experiments were carried out to assess the binding affinity of POLD1 to PCa drugs and its impact on PCa prognosis. Results The study identified 21 metastasis-related genes using the WGCNA method, which were found to be associated with DNA damage, hormone AR activation, and inhibition of the RTK pathway. Cluster analysis confirmed a significant correlation between these genes and PCa metastasis, particularly in the context of immunotherapy and targeted therapy drugs. A diagnostic model combining multiple machine learning algorithms showed strong predictive capabilities for PCa diagnosis, while a transfer model using the LASSO algorithm also yielded promising results. POLD1 emerged as a key prognostic gene among the metastatic genes, showing associations with DNA methylation. Molecular docking experiments supported its high affinity with PCa-targeted drugs. Immunohistochemistry experiments further validated that increased POLD1 expression is linked to poor prognosis in PCa patients. Conclusions The developed diagnostic and metastasis models provide substantial value for patients with prostate cancer. The discovery of POLD1 as a novel biomarker related to prostate cancer metastasis offers a promising avenue for enhancing treatment of prostate cancer metastasis.