Evolution and Driving Forces of Ecological Service Value in Response to Land Use Change in Tarim Basin, Northwest China

The main objective of protecting ecosystems and enhancing the supply of ecosystem services (ESs) is to quantify the value of ecological services. This article calculates the ecological service value (ESV) of the Tarim Basin over the past 40 years using the improved benefits transfer method of satellite remote sensing data, such as Landsat, analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ESV, and studies the driving mechanism of ESV changes using GeoDetector. Finally, the FLUS model was selected to predict the ecosystem service value until 2030, setting up three scenarios: the Baseline Scenario (BLS), the Cultivated Land Protection Scenario (CPS), and the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS). The results indicate that (1) the ESV in the Tarim Basin decreased by USD 1248.21 million (−2.29%) from 1980 to 2020. The top three contributors are water bodies, wetlands, and grassland. (2) Waste treatment and water supply functions had the highest service value, accounting for 44.53% of the total contribution. The rank order of ecosystem functions in terms of their contribution to the total value of ESV was as follows, refining from high to low importance: water supply, waste treatment, biodiversity protection, climate regulation, soil formation, recreation and culture, gas regulation, food production, raw material. (3) The spatial differentiation driving factors of ESV were detected, with the following Q-values in descending order: net primary productivity (NPP) > normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) > precipitation > aspect > temperature > slope > soil erosion > GDP > land use intensity > per capita GDP > population > human activity index. (4) The ESVs simulated under the three scenarios (BLS, CPS, and EPS) for 2030 were USD 51,133.9 million, USD 53,624.99 million, and USD 54,561.26 million, respectively. Compared with 2020, the ESVs of the three scenarios decreased as follows: BLS (USD 4209.33 million), CPS (USD 1718.24 million), and EPS USD (−781.97 million). These findings are significant for maintaining the integrity and sustainability of the large-scale ecosystem, where socioeconomic development and the fragile features of the natural ecosystem interact. Additionally, the study results provide a crucial foundation for governmental decision-makers, local residents, and environmental researchers in northwest China to promote sustainable development.