Response of ecosystem service values to land use change, 2002–2021

Ecosystems in inland river basins are crucial for maintaining socioeconomic stability in arid regions. As a result, an essential tool for tracking ecosystem changes is the measurement of ecosystem service value (ESV). Using land use changes in the Aksu River Basin (ARB) from 2002 to 2021 as an example, the response of land use variations to the ESV in the basin was examined. Using the equivalency coefficients of ecosystem service values adapted for the specific Chinese context, nine different types of ecosystem service values were assessed using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistical technique and Spearman rank correlation analysis. The findings revealed that (1) the pattern of land use change in the ARB has changed significantly over the past 20 years, with grassland and unused land being the dominant land types in the ARB, both accounting for more than 74 % of the total area of the study area. Changes in dynamics were more pronounced for each land use type, with all land use types exhibiting positive dynamics, except for grassland and unused land, which exhibited negative dynamics. (2) The total ESV in the study area increased from 48.06 billion yuan in 2002 to 52.59 billion yuan in 2011 and then decreased to 49.37 billion yuan in 2021. Grassland was the main ecological land type, and the total ESV showed an increasing and then a decreasing trend. (3) There was clear geographical and temporal variation in the ESV distribution, with hotspots primarily located in the northern section of the ARB and coldspots primarily dispersed in the east-central region. (4) Each land use type's sensitivity index was less than 1, showing that the ecological value coefficient (VC) had a small impact on ESV. Policymakers should be aware of the significant effects that land use changes have on ESV as a result, and they should take steps to modify the land use structure, particularly to encourage ecological goals. The above discussion will support the sustainable development of ARB in a variety of ways.