Banning new gas boilers as a hedge against the limited availability of renewable gas supply

Abstract The low uptake of low-carbon heating systems across Europe has prompted authorities to consider more ambitious measures, including a complete ban on the installation of new fossil fuel boilers. In this analysis, we simulate the impacts of introducing a ban on gas boilers under 11,664 scenarios covering major uncertainties. Taking France as a case study, we find that heat pump adoption shifts gas use from heating demand to electricity generation, which is a more efficient use of low-carbon biogas from a whole-system perspective. Heat pump adoption therefore provides a hedge against short supply of low-carbon gas. We additionally find that widespread heat pump adoption is more effectively achieved through a ban on new gas boilers than through incentives under uncertainty. We therefore demonstrate that a ban is critical to meet carbon neutrality, while achieving a reduction in total system cost in over 75\% of scenarios. Finally, we show that the implementation of the ban, when coupled with the existing subsidy framework, mitigates inequalities among owner-occupied households but generate adverse affect for those in privately rented homes.