Understanding preferences for low-carbon technologies, retrofit and ownership models for domestic heating in the UK

Despite advancements in renewable energy technology adoption, the uptake of low-carbon heating technologies in the UK and many other countries remains insufficient to align with governmental objectives and targets. This has been attributed mainly to high capital costs, limited consumer awareness, and unclear economic and environmental benefits. This study aims to understand these challenges and analyse ways to overcome them by exploring consumer willingness to support the transition to low-carbon heating through adoption of low-carbon heating appliances, property retrofit and novel ownership and control models, using data from a two-wave survey of over 1000 UK households conducted in 2023–2024. The first wave assesses current household contexts, which inform three stated-preference scenarios in the second wave: (1) choosing between gas boilers, hydrogen-ready boilers, and air-source electric heat pumps, with varying costs, emissions, and support schemes; (2) deciding on retrofit levels (none, minor, major) characterised by costs, savings, and support; and (3) selecting between ownership and operation models (full ownership, shared ownership, service-based heating), each with different costs, contract lengths, and flexibility features. By using discrete choice modelling, the analysis provides insights into how different consumer segments, defined by sociodemographic and attitudinal factors, respond to attributes such as capital and operational costs, as well as the impact of support schemes. The study estimates willingness to pay for reduced nuisance or emissions, and the compensations required for participation in flexible pricing or demand-side response, offering guidance for policies that encourage low-carbon heating adoption across diverse user groups.