Liquid hydrogen has become a key focus in aviation as a potential energy vector for advancing towards 2050 Net Zero targets. This paper presents a new tool SHAPE (Surrey Hydrogen Aircraft Performance Evaluator) for system-level assessment of an adapted wing and tube aircraft configuration for liquid hydrogen fuel and the associated enabling technologies. SHAPE, a 0D steady-state solver, uses adapted empirical correlations with hydrogen-related technological assumptions and future projections for system sizing, mass, and performance predictions. The SHAPE predictions of conventional aircraft performance were validated against open-source information of A320neo and B737-800 aircraft along with results of widely used aircraft design tools SUAVE and TASOPT over a short haul mission. SHAPE’s results suggest that a liquid hydrogen-fueled aircraft with a gas turbine propulsion system could be demonstrated for an A320neo equivalent mission with competitive overall mass (+1%) and performance attributes (+2% energy consumption) compared to a kerosene aircraft. Certification for 2035 timescales would be challenging and requires considerable industry effort, collaboration, and early regulatory body engagement. Considering on-board technology uncertainties associated with hydrogen, a sensitivity analysis shows that the energy consumption prediction of the hydrogen aircraft could vary between +7.1% to −2.2% relative to equivalent kerosene aircraft, and overall aircraft mass could vary between +5.5% to −2.1% (with a 95% level of confidence). Fuel cell powered aircraft, even with optimistic assumptions, appear to be unfeasible for short/medium haul missions. The preliminary observations emphasize the opportunity for technology demonstration with tube-and-wing aircraft adapted for hydrogen combustion, given their higher weight and lower energy efficiency compared to kerosene aircraft. The findings of a large number of previous studies are benchmarked against the outputs of this work to provide further context and insight.
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Tiwari et al. (2024) studied this question.