Shift in Demographic Involvement and Clinical Characteristics of COVID-19 from Wild-type to Delta variant SARS-CoV-2 in Indian population: In Silico Analysis (Preprint)

Background The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) was considered the most dangerous SARS-CoV-2 strain; however, in-depth studies on its impact based on demographic and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 are scarce. Objective We aimed to investigate the shift in demographic and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic with the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant compared with the wild-type (WT) strain (B.1). Methods A cross-sectional study of COVID-19 cases in the Indian population caused by the WT strain (B.1) and Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was performed. The viral genomic sequence metadata containing demographic, vaccination, and patient status details (N=9500, NDelta=6238, NWT=3262) were statistically analyzed. Results With the Delta variant, in comparison with the WT strain, a higher proportion of young individuals (<20 years) were infected (0-9 years: Delta: 281/6238, 4.5% vs B.1: 75/3262, 2.3%; 10-19 years: Delta: 562/6238, 9% vs B.1: 229/3262, 7%; P<.001). The proportion of women contracting infection increased (Delta: 2557/6238, 41% vs B.1: 1174/3262, 36%; P<.001). However, it decreased for men (Delta: 3681/6238, 59% vs B.1: 2088/3262, 64%; P<.001). An increased proportion of the young population developed symptomatic illness and were hospitalized (Delta: 27/262, 10.3% vs B.1: 5/130, 3.8%; P=.02). Moreover, an increased proportion of the women (albeit not men) from the young (Delta: 37/262, 14.1% vs B.1: 4/130, 3.1%; P<.001) and adult (Delta: 197/262, 75.2% vs B.1: 72/130, 55.4%; P<.001) groups developed symptomatic illness and were hospitalized. The mean age of men and women who contracted infection (Delta: men=37.9, SD 17.2 years; women=36.6, SD 17.6 years; P<.001; B.1: men=39.6, SD 16.9 years; women=40.1, SD 17.4 years; P<.001) as well as developing symptoms or being hospitalized (Delta: men=39.6, SD 17.4 years; women=35.6, SD 16.9 years, P<.001; B.1: men=47, SD 18 years; women=49.5, SD 20.9 years, P<.001) were considerably lower with the Delta variant than the B.1 strain. The total mortality was about 1.8 times higher with the Delta variant than with the WT strain. With the Delta variant, compared with B.1, mortality decreased for men (Delta: 58/85, 68% vs B.1: 15/20, 75%; P<.001); in contrast, it increased for women (Delta: 27/85, 32% vs B.1: 5/20, 25%; P<.001). The odds of death increased with age, irrespective of sex (odds ratio 3.034, 95% CI 1.7-5.2, P<.001). Frequent postvaccination infections (24/6238) occurred with the Delta variant following complete doses. Conclusions The increased involvement of young people and women, the lower mean age for illness, higher mortality, and frequent postvaccination infections were significant epidemiological concerns with the Delta variant.