Formulation of best estimate plus uncertainty methodologies for economy decarbonization in high-energy-demand isolated systems: Canary Islands forecasts for 2040

This study explores the transition of the Canary Islands from a fossil fuel-dependent energy system to a decarbonized economy framework by 2040, utilizing a novel Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach integrated with Wilk's formula. The research focuses on the challenges and methodologies involved in shifting to green energy sources—specifically solar photovoltaic, wind and nuclear power—while also incorporating hydrogen as an alternative energy vector for non-electrifiable sectors. The BEPU framework is central to the methodology, enhanced by correlation analysis and synthetic curve generation techniques to address the inherent variability of renewable energy sources and fluctuating energy demands and identify the most important inputs uncertainties for an optimized deterministic scenario. Using Wilk's Formula, this methodology allows for a detailed examination of 459 different input variable random combinations of wind speed, sun irradiance, electric and hydrogen demand uncertainties, reaching 99/99% coverage and confidence levels. 60% of the simulations showed energy shortages, with a potential of up to 5.2% of the total demand. To counteract this risk in the isolated power system, a 30% increase in installed power capacity was deemed necessary, which resulted in a 15% rise in the overall system costs to ensure demand fulfillment across all simulations. The correlation analysis highlights the significance of economic growth and the electrification of the vehicle fleet in meeting the future uncertain energy demands of the Canary Islands. Significant advancements in renewable energy infrastructure are needed to ensure reliability and meet future energy demands.