Some Forecasting Models in Tourism (Case of Georgia)

In tourism, as in any other business, a responsible decision requires serious justification, since a mistake made in making a decision is associated with large financial losses. In such cases, it is necessary to turn to modeling the behavior of the economic system. In most cases, mathematical models are used, which save the researcher from the need to conduct expensive experiments. Tourism processes are usually dynamic, characterized by seasonality and trends. By analytically simplifying the dynamic rows, a certain model - a trend equation is built, which mathematically accurately describes the development trend of the event in time. The change in indicator levels can be described using a time function. Analytical smoothing method provides an opportunity to evaluate, mathematically describe and predict the event. This article discusses a forecasting model with a combination of moving average and regression analysis. The result of modeling on a specific numerical example - the dynamics of visits of foreign travelers to Georgia - indicates that this approach to building trend models provides a good degree of data approximation and forecasting. All calculations necessary to build the model are performed using Excel tools.