Sustainability study of nuclear power in the context of successful scenarios for new generation nuclear power systems

To achieve carbon neutrality in China, exploring the sustainable development path of future nuclear power has emerged as a crucial issue. Given the characteristics of both existing and emerging nuclear power technologies, this study presents a vision for the future nuclear fission energy fuel cycle in China. Based on this vision, a simulation model for the future nuclear power fuel cycle has been established. Under the commercial operation conditions of various new generation nuclear power technologies, scenarios outlining the future installed capacity of each technology have been carefully designed. These scenarios allow for the simulation of spent fuel accumulation, annual uranium demand for nuclear power, and the accumulated volume of radioactive nuclear waste. The findings indicate that a robust push towards new generation nuclear power technologies will significantly reduce spent fuel accumulation and uranium demand, thereby enhancing the sustainability of nuclear power development. Notably, ADANES stands out as a particularly promising technology in this regard. However, it is imperative to recognize that uranium-plutonium cycle technologies may contribute to the growth of radioactive nuclear waste. Therefore, active research on innovative radioactive nuclear waste disposal methods is necessary to mitigate this challenge. This study addresses a gap in existing research, as it provides a comprehensive analysis of the future installation planning of new generation nuclear energy technology. By doing so, it contributes to the ongoing efforts towards achieving carbon neutrality in China through the sustainable development of nuclear power.