Ocean warming undermines the recovery resilience of New England kelp forests following a fishery‐induced trophic cascade

Abstract Ecological theory predicts that kelp forests structured by trophic cascades should experience recovery and persistence of their foundation species when herbivores become rare. Yet, climate change may be altering the outcomes of top‐down forcing in kelp forests, especially those located in regions that have rapidly warmed in recent decades, such as the Gulf of Maine. Here, using data collected annually from 30+ sites spanning >350 km of coastline, we explored the dynamics of Maine's kelp forests in the ~20 years after a fishery‐induced elimination of sea urchin herbivores. Although forests ( Saccharina latissima and Laminaria digitata ) had broadly returned to Maine in the late 20th century, we found that forests in northeast Maine have since experienced slow but significant declines in kelp, and forest persistence in the northeast was juxtaposed by a rapid, widespread collapse in the southwest. Forests collapsed in the southwest apparently because ocean warming has—directly and indirectly—made this area inhospitable to kelp. Indeed, when modeling drivers of change using causal techniques from econometrics, we discovered that unusually high summer seawater temperatures the year prior, unusually high spring seawater temperatures, and high sea urchin densities each negatively impacted kelp abundance. Furthermore, the relative power and absolute impact of these drivers varied geographically. Our findings reveal that ocean warming is redefining the outcomes of top‐down forcing in this system, whereby herbivore removal no longer predictably leads to a sustained dominance of foundational kelps but instead has led to a waning dominance (northeast) or the rise of a novel phase state defined by “turf” algae (southwest). Such findings indicate that limiting climate change and managing for low herbivore abundances will be essential for preventing further loss of the vast forests that still exist in northeast Maine. They also more broadly highlight that climate change is “rewriting the rules” of nature, and thus that ecological theory and practice must be revised to account for shifting species and processes.