Scanning the Horizon for Potential Nonnative Aquatic Plant and Algae Arrivals to the Pacific Northwest

To date, the Pacific Northwestern United States has experienced fewer nonnative species introductions than other parts of the country, presenting an opportunity to minimize future harm from invasive species by investing in prevention efforts. Horizon scanning for potential future invasive species provides foundational data for developing efficient prevention and early detection strategies. We gathered more than twenty federal, state, tribal, local government, university, and industry partners to provide input on priority geography, introduction pathways, and taxa for a horizon scan focused on the Pacific Northwestern United States. The scope of this initial effort included submerged or floating aquatic plants and algae that could be introduced to the region via movement of recreational boats. Watercraft inspection data were combined with climate matching analyses to identify "top donor regions" from which submerged or floating aquatic plants were most likely to arrive. We identified five aquatic plants as posing high risk to the Pacific Northwest on the basis of climate match and prior history of invasiveness in other locations: Carolina mosquitofern (Azolla caroliniana), crested mosquitofern (Azolla cristata), Indian swampweed (Hygrophila polysperma), wingleaf primrose-willow (Ludwigia decurrens), and water spangles (Salvinia minima). Another 21 species pose uncertain risk given available information. These results can be used to inform regulatory actions, improve training, and refine detection tools and strategies on a local, regional, and national level. More broadly, this horizon scan provides a template for future horizon scanning for other geographies, pathways, and taxonomic groups.