From income to diet: animal-based foods and proteins worldwide

A rapid increase in global population and wealth has led to a growing demand for animal-based foods, posing significant environmental and health challenges. This study examines the relationship between GDP per capita and the supply of animal-based foods and proteins, using country-level panel data and a polynomial model to explore the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. We find a non-linear, N-shaped relationship: animal food supply and animal proteins rise with GDP, decline at intermediate income levels, and increase again at higher incomes. Maxima occur at $35,000 for shares and $40,000–$50,000 for absolute supplies. Estimated income elasticities are inelastic, though their sign varies across the income distribution. Moreover, regional differences are notable: Europe exhibits clear N-shaped curves, Asia and Latin America show predominantly monotonic increases with only weak curvature and Africa displays near-linear growth. Projections under SSP – RCP scenarios suggest continued increases in animal food and protein supply through 2050. Our findings indicate that economic growth alone is unlikely to curb rising animal consumption and its associated negative health and environmental impacts. Effective policy interventions and dietary shifts will be required to align future diets with sustainability and public health goals.