Industrialization Mitigates Greenhouse Gas Intensity in China’s Dairy Sector yet May Prove Insufficient to Offset Emissions from Future Production Expansion

China's dairy farming is undergoing a critical transition from extensive to industrial systems. To achieve sustainable milk production within China's dual-carbon goals, understanding the multidimensional impacts of industrialization on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is imperative. This study comprehensively analyzed the implications of China's dairy industrialization on GHG emissions and explored future mitigation potential. Results indicated that industrial systems exhibited lower methane but higher carbon dioxide intensities, with net GHG intensity lower than other systems. During 2002-2020, China's milk production increased by 165%, while GHG emissions increased by 105% to 50.27 Tg CO