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One of the primary challenges in cable-stayed bridges is to assess the service performance of stay cables in response to applied loads and ensure that they meet safety requirements. This paper proposes a new strategy to analyze the time-varying reliability of the ultimate load-carrying capacity of stay cables under resistance and stress uncertainty conditions. Initially, we employ the frequency-squeezing processing (FSP) technique within the vibration frequency method (VFM) to enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of cable force identification through field measurement. Subsequently, we thoroughly discuss and establish the statistical characteristics and probabilistic models of stress, including both slow-varying trend and fast-varying trend components, as well as resistance considering the strengthening deterioration effect. The slow-varying trends of the cable forces are extracted using the moving average method (MAM), and both the extracted slow variation and the fast-varying trend components are analyzed in detail. Finally, we introduce a Gaussian process-based surrogate model to assess the time-varying structural reliability by analyzing the associated limit-state function for the ultimate load capacity of the stay cables. In this study, the proposed strategy is applied to quantify the ultimate load-carrying reliability of a stay cable under the uncertainty of the coupled action of corrosion and fatigue. Compared with conventional reliability analysis, the failure probability interval estimation shows the uncertainty boundaries and provides specific years of reliability failure, which can serve as an important reference for bridge maintenance and strengthening.
Lu et al. (Fri,) studied this question.