Systemic risk approach to mitigate delay cascading in railway networks

Abstract Delay cascades may significantly disrupt the regular operation of public transportation systems. What are the origins and processes involved in delay-spreading in public railway systems? How can delay propagation in national railway systems be efficiently managed with a minimum of effort? With a network-based systemic risk approach, we quantify the impact of trains on the system.This allows us to find which train assignments play the leading roles in transmitting delays to following trains. This identification of weak spots in the system now enables us to effectively reduce delay cascades by adding very few specific short-distance train services. Agent-based simulations validate our results.