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Extreme heat is a climate hazard that has been linked with high morbidity and mortality. The way extreme heat events are felt in the population varies depending on a variety of factors, such as age, employment status, living conditions, air-conditioning, housing conditions, habits, behaviors, and other socio-demographic parameters. To quantify and locate vulnerabilities of populations to extreme heat, we analyze socio-economic data at the NUTS3 level for the national case study of Greece and at the census tract level for the local case study of the city of Athens. The target variable for this study is defined as the average daily mortality during heatwaves per 100,000 individuals and a methodology is developed for constructing this variable, based on socio-economic data available in public databases. Independent variables were selected based on their contribution to socioeconomic vulnerability; they include the percentage of elderly, retired, unemployed, renting, living alone, residing in smaller houses, living in older houses, and immigrants from developing countries. An ensemble gradient boosted tree model was employed for this study to obtain feature importance metrics that was used to construct a composite index of socioeconomic heat vulnerability. The socioeconomic heat vulnerability index (SHVI) was calculated for each prefecture in Greece and for each census tract in the city of Athens, Greece. The unique feature of this SHVI is that it can be applied to any geographical resolution using the same methodology and produces a result that is not only quantifiable, but also allows comparison between vulnerability scores of different regions. This application aimed to map the SHVI of both prefecture and city, to examine the significance of scale, to identify vulnerability hotspots, and rank the most vulnerable areas, which are prioritized by authorities for interventions that protect public health.
Ziliaskopoulos et al. (Wed,) studied this question.