A predictive framework for urban climate risk: Mapping heat Hazard and socioeconomic vulnerability at high resolution scenarios

Urban climate risk under future climate change is inherently multi-dimensional, yet most assessment approaches rely on single thermal indicators and fail to integrate dynamic and continuous air-temperature data with socioeconomic vulnerability at intra-urban planning resolution. This study presents and validates an open-source, computationally accessible framework that combines dynamic hourly air-temperature simulation at 100-m resolution, three epidemiologically and energetically grounded heat hazard indices, and three socioeconomic vulnerability indicators, classified within the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Hazard-Exposure-Vulnerability structure at residential census-tract resolution. The framework is applied to Seville, Spain, under a 2050 RCP4.5 climate scenario, including the validation of the TARGET model in a hot, dry Mediterranean climate. Results reveal a spatially heterogeneous risk landscape where acute daytime exposure, nocturnal thermal stress, and cooling demand follow divergent spatial patterns. Approximately 33% of the municipal population falls within census tracts where heat hazard and socioeconomic vulnerability coincide, exposing both conditions simultaneously to some degree. A further 2.6% is concentrated in areas of high combined climate risk, where heat hazard and socioeconomic vulnerability simultaneously exceed critical thresholds. The open-source, standard-hardware workflow is transferable to medium-to-large cities with equivalent open-data availability.