A Methodological Framework to Evaluate Environmental Vulnerabilities in Urban Areas: Two Case Studies in Italy

Climate change poses increasing threats to urban populations, with rising temperatures exacerbating heat-related health risks and reducing outdoor thermal comfort. Although cities occupy only a small fraction of the Earth’s surface, they function as complex ecosystems where human transformations significantly influence environmental quality and public health. This research introduces a trans-scalar methodological framework to assess the impacts of climate change on human well-being in urban areas, integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches. The methodology combines direct field observations, instrumental surveys using infrared thermography, quantitative land cover analysis (Runoff and RIE indices), and predictive microclimatic simulations using ENVI-met 5.8. The framework is applied to two case studies in Italy, the municipalities of Bibbiena and Borgo San Lorenzo, focusing on pedestrian accessibility to community healthcare facilities, known as Community Houses. Results reveal critical environmental vulnerabilities, including surface temperatures reaching up to 60 °C on impervious materials, runoff coefficients exceeding 80%, and Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) values exceeding 56 °C during summer peak hours, indicating extreme heat stress conditions. The proposed framework enables the identification of priority intervention areas for climate adaptation strategies, supporting evidence-based urban design that prioritises public health and thermal comfort. The methodology offers replicability for other Mediterranean cities facing similar climate challenges, providing a decision-support tool for planners and public administrations.