Evolution and driving factors of inequality in CO2 emissions from agricultural energy consumption in China

Abstract The inequality in CO 2 emissions from agricultural energy consumption is a major challenge for coordinating low-carbon agricultural development across regions in China. However, the evolutionary characteristics and driving factors of inequality in China’s agricultural energy-related CO 2 emissions are poorly understood. In response, the Kaya–Theil model was adopted to examine the three potential factors influencing CO 2 emission inequality in China’s agricultural energy consumption. The results revealed that, from 1997 to 2021, agricultural energy-related CO 2 emissions per capita showed a significant upward trend, with prominent polarization and right-tailing phenomena. Overall, the inequality was on a downward trend, with the Theil index falling from 0.4109 in 1997 to 0.1957 in 2021. Meanwhile, the decomposition of the national inequality revealed that the within-group inequality declined from 0.3991 to 0.1634, which was greater than between-group inequality, based on zoning the 28 provinces into three grain production functional areas. As for the three kaya factors, the energy intensity contributed the most to the overall inequality, followed by the agricultural economic development and CO 2 emission intensity. Based on these results, this study provided some potential strategies to reduce agricultural-related CO 2 emissions.