Considering the probability evaluation of wind turbine output under multiple states

Due to the randomness of wind speed and wind turbine unit status in the wind field, the output of wind turbines is subject to randomness. If large-scale wind power is integrated into the power system, it is necessary to evaluate the output of wind turbines. In order to more accurately evaluate the output of wind turbines under multiple random states, this paper considers four states of operation, decoupling, shutdown, and random startup for each wind turbine unit, and considers the sum of the outputs of independent wind turbines under these four states. Sequential Monte Carlo method is used for sampling evaluation, and two-parameter Weibull distribution is used to simulate wind speed in the wind field. The impact of parameter changes on the output of wind turbines is observed by changing the parameters. Considering the stochastic impact of wind speed on the overall wind turbines in the wind field and considering the random states of individual wind turbines, a model for the output of wind turbines under multiple states is established. Finally, the probability density of the output of wind turbines under various states is compared and analyzed, and the simulation results verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed method in evaluating the output of wind turbines.