Modeling of transformer oil-paper insulation deterioration based on improved Wiener model

The power transformer is the hub of electric energy conversion. Its oil-paper insulation is influenced by factors such as thermal, mechanical, and electrical force. Deterioration due to these factors can lead to a decline in the insulation performance of the transformer. The establishment of the deterioration process of transformer oil-paper insulation enables the evaluation of the transformer's performance, the prediction of its remaining lifespan, and the execution of timely maintenance and overhaul procedures for optimal functioning. To accurately model the deterioration process, a modeling method according to an enhanced Wiener model is proposed. Firstly, the deterioration model according to the Wiener model is established. Then a decay factor for improvement is introduced and the model parameters are updated according to the maximum expectation algorithm. Ultimately, a case to improve the Wiener model is conducted using furfural content as a performance deterioration indicator. Compared with the Bayesian Wiener model, the improved Wiener model is more accurate and the mean square deviation is reduced by 91.98%, which has a certain theoretical value for mastering the deterioration process of transformers.