Prediction of Long-term Carbon Absorption by Applying Regeneration Scenarios for the Forests in South Korea

Abstract As global warming has become a critical environmental issue, carbon neutrality is required to respond to rapidly changing environmental policies in response to climate change. Forests, the core of carbon absorption sources, are important to achieve carbon neutrality in South Korea; thus, forest management, particularly afforestation, is emerging as an essential factor. Several forest-related studies have been conducted to improve carbon absorption; however, only a few have focused on direct afforestation studies from a long-term perspective. South Korea successfully implemented intensive greening projects in the 1960s and 1970s. However, intensive afforestation is currently causing a severe problem of age-class imbalance, and the carbon absorption rate of forests is expected to decrease sharply in the future, indicating the importance of forest management. This study applied regeneration scenarios to overcome this challenge. The cumulative carbon absorption value for 90 years, from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2109, was set as the baseline. Various changes were made following the circular economy trend for the species and age classes distributed throughout the country, resulting in multiple outcomes of the regeneration scenarios. Comparing the results of this study with the statistics reported by the Ministry of Environment’s Greenhouse Gas Information Center, the difference in the maximum absorption sources confirmed that forest absorption sources, which had been reported to be 6.26% in 2019, could increase up to 8.74% by 2109. In conclusion, forest management is a crucial carbon-neutral strategy that needs to be implemented at the national level. Formulating a detailed plan after determining the long-term direction of forests is important. A more systematic approach should be used for planning and implementing afforestation in the future.