Fuzzy Optimization Models for Intellectual Capital Enhancing Project Portfolio Selection under Risk

This paper proposes fuzzy optimization models to select project portfolios that enhance an organization's intellectual capital taking risks into account.Fuzzy optimization models are proposed to support decision-making in the selection of project portfolios within the framework of an organization's intellectual capital development program.Intellectual capital is considered as a multi-level hierarchical system with numerous implicit factors.A scenario approach is applied to model internal and external conditions.The project's utility is defined as a change in integral indicator of an organization's intellectual capital resulting from its implementation.Measures of risk are based on the utility dispersions.The expected specific utility of the project portfolio, or the portfolio risk, is used as a fuzzy objective function.Constraints in the models are also fuzzy.Fuzzy optimization problems are converted to crisp Boolean quadratic programming problems.A distinctive feature of the models is the use of fuzzy inference systems to calculate the values of intellectual capital development indicators at different hierarchical levels.Exogenous variables in the models are represented as Gaussian-type fuzzy numbers.The results of approbation of the proposed models using the case of a large regional university are presented and discussed.Further research endeavors could involve testing the models using examples from other organizations to enhance practical recommendations for managers and substantiate the potential for scalability.Additionally, a more rigorous model diagnostics process is required.